Our approach

We buy what fast markets oversell.

When prediction markets move fast, prices often overshoot. Our system is waiting with disciplined orders set in advance, buying contracts that history shows are priced too low against how events actually resolve.

It runs around the clock and sizes every position to its measured odds of paying off, accepting many small, controlled losses in exchange for occasional large gains.

Fair value, from how similar moments resolved Bid set in advance Filled during the overshoot Price recovers
When a fast market overshoots below fair value, an order already in place is filled. The contract later settles at $1 or nothing.

Total return

...

Today

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since midnight UTC

Return over time

Time-weighted return, deposits excluded
Table

What we do

A disciplined system for overreacting markets

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where every contract pays $1 if an event happens and nothing if it does not. Prices move fast during live events, and they often move too far. That is where the system works.

  1. 01

    Watch

    The system follows about 500 eligible markets around the clock, recently live sports such as basketball, college football and hockey, where prices move fastest and overreact most.

  2. 02

    Measure

    Every price on offer is weighed against how comparable moments have actually resolved. When a price sits well below that record, the market has overreacted and the contract is cheap.

  3. 03

    Commit

    Orders are set in advance and sit ready, so the system acts the moment a market overshoots, with no hesitation and no second-guessing.

  4. 04

    Size

    Each position is sized to its measured odds of paying off. Losses are small and known in advance; gains, when they come, are several times the stake.

Why Peripheral

Built for one edge, and nothing else.

Wall Street's largest trading firms now make markets on Kalshi, earning the spread between buyers and sellers, and hedge funds use it to hedge economic releases such as jobs and inflation data. We do something narrower: we wait for live markets to overreact, and buy what they oversell.

PeripheralCommon elsewhere
The edgeBuying overreactions in live markets, with orders set before the moveEarning the bid-ask spread, or hedging scheduled economic data
SizeSized to what thin order books can absorbLarge positions that can move prices in shallow markets
ReportingLive, refreshed every minute, time-weighted so deposits never inflate itMonthly or quarterly statements
FeesA share of profit only. No profit, no feeA management fee charged every year, plus a share of profit
Your accountYour own balance and return from your first day, behind your own log inA pooled statement after the fact

Comparisons describe common practice reported in the market, not any specific firm.

About the account

Strategy
Automated trading of event contracts on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange
How return is measured
Time-weighted on settled results
Reporting
Live, refreshed every minute
Fees
A share of profit only, agreed with each member. No management fee
Your figures
Each member sees their own balance and return from the day they joined